Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters

摘要

It is argued that the posterior predictive distribution for the binomial and multinomial distributions, when viewed via a hypergeometric-like representation, suggests the uniform prior on the parameters for these models. The argument is supported by studying variations on an example by Fisher, and complements Bayes' original argument for a uniform prior predictive distribution for the binomial. The fact that both arguments lead to invariance under transformation is also discussed.